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Doncic and Young will each get $300 million. What the new TV contract will change in the NBA

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Young andLuka Doncic

Fans will have to pay even more and watch more commercials.

The NBA plans to sign a new TV contract worth $75 billion over nine years. The new agreement is expected to add $8.3 billion to the league's budget each year, which is $5.7 billion more than the current contract, Forbes writes, citing its league sources. In that case, if the NBA and the players' union do not artificially restrain the growth of the salary ceiling in the coming seasons, its value could rise to $171 million by 2025. Last season, the salary ceiling was $109.1 million. For the 2021/22 season, the league raised it to $112.4 million. Let's try to figure out where this is going. For players, owners and viewers.

300 million for superstars

The NBA had its previous TV contract with ESPN and Turner Network Television in 2014. The numbers seemed scary then: $24 billion over nine years (starting with the 2016/17 season). Some pundits said thanks to the late David Stern, who was able to take the NBA to such a cosmic level. Others were indignant: where did that money come from and how do we get it back? It turned out to be OK. It gave the league a serious profit and, as a consequence, a huge jump in salaries followed. As a reminder, players' salaries are built from the revenue the NBA earns. Not a fixed amount, but exactly what is earned. In the 2015/16 season, the salary ceiling increased by 24 million. That's just over 20%. The players' union got in on the act. There was talk of a 3% increase for players, but 3% of 24 billion is 720 million.



A new contract was a matter of time. The example of the National Football League (NFL), which had an even bigger TV rights deal, $113 billion over 11 years, is before my eyes. The NBA would have a slightly more modest $75 billion over nine years.
With this potential contract, the salary ceiling would be set at 170-171 million. That's outrageous. You used to be able to buy a club for that kind of money. This would give even more room for teams to maneuver, and player salaries would increase insanely. The clubs' bid will likely expand from 16 to 17, as the players' union loves to increase its "presence" in any activity. For sure, serious players will be counting so that their contracts come to an end just in time for 2025, so that they can get the next supermax.


Naturally, the maximum contracts will reach 300 million. The 200+ million contracts, which are the biggest right now, will not look serious. Trey Young and Luka Doncic could get the next five-year, $300 million contracts. In 2025, the Summersmacks will be up to 60 million a year. That is, if a man signs a five-year supermax, he will get 300 million graded at 53 for the first year, 58 for the second, 60 for the third, 62 for the fourth, 67 for the fifth. What's more, Stephen Curry can claim his third (!) supermax. He was previously the first athlete in history to receive two consecutive $200 million contracts.

Wiretaps and subsidies

The role of megastars will increase even more. They will have power in their hands that has nothing to do with being very cool. They will be required to be paid. This is the kind of story where if you're a club owner, you can't not pay. After all, clubs are obligated to spend 50 percent of their revenue on player salaries. Someone the general manager or president will be able to negotiate with. And some will have to adjust.
General managers will have to analyze their strategies even more deeply. Even now, they must have entire departments calculate the possible salary expectations of top players. So that by 2025 they can calculate who to pay and how much.
Clearly, LeBron James will be done by then. Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis, for example, will still be in their prime. So you can build a team now, put it together on paper for a new TV contract.



Shark agents like Rich Paul, Mark Bertelstein, Jeff Schwartz, Aaron Mintz are already calculating how to get their clients in the right "condition" by 2025, how to raise the most money possible for them. But it's not that simple. There are no fools in the NBA leadership.
They'll probably tighten the rules around tamping and tanking even more, with the player communicating with teams (or representatives) before they're officially allowed to negotiate. It might even come down to wiretaps. So, of course, collusion between players or players of the same agent will be strictly suppressed. It is possible that there will be a limit on the number of players from one agent on one team.
The reason for the opposition from the NBA is clear. No one in the league wants to create the conditions for a dynasty team in the NBA. The worst-case scenario for the NBA in principle is three or more championship wins for one team. Perennially weak markets like Minnesota or Detroit would lose even more importance. There would be another need for subsidies, as was the case recently with New Orleans. It would look interesting to punish not only with rubles (dollars), but with the removal of points (in the case of the NBA, the removal of wins, since there is no counting of points for wins).

More advertising and more TV power

What do the contracts bring to the end consumer? First, increased cable fees for viewers. Second, more games on national television. The fight for time and for viewers hasn't been undone. Third, a more flexible game schedule, as we will have to adjust even more to television. TV will dictate game kickoff times, not the NBA.
Fourth, compromises will have to be made to show in Asia. Fifth, there will be even more advertising. Sixth, and most importantly, all of this will give technology a boost. In terms of product design, there should be a qualitative leap.

It is already known that the league will hold an annual TV show at the end of the season. Naturally, the women's NBA will get its fair share of national television coverage. It is likely that the Developmental League will also get some.
The teams and their owners in this situation will be placed in a new framework and will face new challenges. There will be an increase in all team maintenance and business costs. Will these contract proceeds be enough to cover those costs? Time will determine.

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